The breaking of the Nationalbank of Schweiz – A Black Swan ?

— A Special Edition —

On the 15th January 2015 the Switzerland National Bank – SNB – has decided to get out from his 1.2 EUR/CHF defending line. It means that the CHF could be stronger as much as the market is deciding. I am confident that you could read a lot about this subject in many economical newspapers. But Engineering Investments would like to share with our faithful readers about several important subjects on this special event.

As the 1.2 EUR/CHF has been fixed as a bottom line for defending the Switzerland export, then the market participations have just opened many Buy orders, when the EUR/CHF has been traded near this price line. It means the buyers “know” that they could not lose too much… therefore this line has been strong till the heads of SNB have understood, that if they will not say no more 1.2 EUR/CHF line now, then later on it would be a bigger price movement much more than we have seen on the 15th January !

To see how big is this price movement, i think an one picture is more than 1000 words…

Frank and the SNB
The graph of GBPCHF

For all the market participations this big event is absolute a black swan. But, as you have seen at Engineering Investments website our Algorithmic-Trading account has gained about 70% from this black swan event ! How ?

 

To get into the full understanding of how a black swan could be a good event, we have to understand that our Algorithmic-Trading is usually making gain by trading against the market direction. But for this special event you have to also read our latest article on the 10.01.2015, which had discussed exactly about this subject !

 

Moreover, as a professional forex trader and along the high volatility of the GBPCHF i had to stop several times the algorithm and to open a sell order on the GBPCHF, which has being opened over a long time, just because the intuitive of a professional trader has shown about an absolute abnormal situation !

 

Engineering Investments is not saying that we have found the holy-grail, but only that we are always minimize the overall risk and maximize the gain for achieving the best high gain investments over the time !


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Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto)


By (author): Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Antifragile is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.
 
Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. 
 
In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.
 
Furthermore, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine. And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.
 
Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.
 
Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb’s message is revolutionary: The antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it.

Praise for Antifragile
 
“Ambitious and thought-provoking . . . highly entertaining.”The Economist
 
“A bold book explaining how and why we should embrace uncertainty, randomness, and error . . . It may just change our lives.”Newsweek
 
“Revelatory . . . [Taleb] pulls the reader along with the logic of a Socrates.”Chicago Tribune
 
“Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides . . . I will have to read it again. And again.”—Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal
 
“Trenchant and persuasive . . . Taleb’s insatiable polymathic curiosity knows no bounds. . . . You finish the book feeling braver and uplifted.”New Statesman
 
“Antifragility isn’t just sound economic and political doctrine. It’s also the key to a good life.”Fortune
 
“At once thought-provoking and brilliant.”—Los Angeles Times

From the Hardcover edition.

List Price: $18.00 USD
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